Bitcoin And Halloween: Will BTC Rise On The Scariest Day?

A theory known as “the Halloween Effect” is surrounding Bitcoin this time of the year, suggesting that stocks and assets like BTC perform best starting from October 31 through May of the next year. Bitcoin and Halloween do not share many things in common but the latter could be a period when we can see BTC shining.

The big question in the Bitcoin news is – will this theory be proven as real this year, or is the idea nothing more than a spooky superstition?

Bitcoin and Halloween are a topic for many investors and analysts, most of which are trying to determine the strength or weakness of an asset before settling a buy order. On another note, Halloween is popular as a period on itself and analysts are trying to link BTC’s performance with it every single year.

The common theory around Bitcoin and Halloween shows that assts will perform better and provide greater returns on investment through May – then they will in the other half of the calendar year. This is known as “The Halloween Effect,” “The Halloween Indicator,” or “The Halloween Strategy” and suggests that buying an asset to hold it throughout the winter months will reward the investor with a nice profit.

But does this Bitcoin and Halloween theory hold true for BTC markets?

If we analyze the data before and see BTC’s performance from each October 31 through May 1 period, we will see that the theory may prove to be accurate except from only one period so far.

We can see that Bitcoin and Halloween in 2015 was the actual kickstart to the bull run that crypto investors needed, bringing over a 41% increase. In 2016, the Halloween Effect showed a 117% return from October 31 through May, while between October 31 2017 and May 1 2018 Bitcoin had set its all-time high of $20,000 and retraced back down to $5,800 at that point. Still, the increase marked a nice 52% gain.

From October 2018 through May 2019, we can see the only decline following Halloween, resulting in a -12.5% drop in value. This year, Bitcoin and Halloween are posed to produce a new bull run which is very much expected at the markets now.

So, could the massive pump be investors gearing up for the Halloween Effect?

This is very much possible. With the prices expected to reach $55,000 per BTC by the next halving according to a stock-to-flow model, we could see a rise that would mark the largest Halloween Effect to date.

Will bitcoin reach $55k by May 2020? @JoeSquawk discusses #btc with @StocktonKatie pic.twitter.com/r1b5rNhX1s

— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) July 29, 2019